Five Days Left to Win the Montana Senate Seat

Deadline: August 10. Montana, let's not hand a Senate seat for free to the Trump-endorsed Republican.

Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead should withdraw, so independent Seth Bodnar can face Republican Kurt Alme head-to-head. This is the only matchup that is winnable.

The race is only over if Bankhead stays in

There are three candidates in this race: Trump-endorsed Republican Kurt Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and independent Seth Bodnar. If all three stay in, Bankhead and Bodnar split the Democratic and independent vote — and Alme wins by double digits.

Head-to-head is a different story. Across an average of recent polls, Bankhead loses to Alme by about 11 points one-on-one. Bodnar is roughly tied with him.

The only scenario in which Montanans can defeat Alme is a Bankhead withdrawal before August 10.

This simulation lets you take either candidate off the ballot to see where their voters go.

Alme (R)
On the ballot
Bodnar (Ind)
Bankhead (D)

Illustrative simulation built from an average of recent statewide polls (three-way and head-to-head matchups); vote transfers are estimates. Remaining share is undecided. Full toplines (PDF)

A Democrat can't win this seat in 2026

Trump beat Harris 58% to 38% in 2024. Montanans will never vote for a Democrat, no matter who the Democrat is. But many of these same voters will vote for an independent. They're saying so in their responses to polls and we've seen it happen in other states. In 2024, Dan Osborn in Nebraska showed that independents can outperform Democrats by huge margins (14 points) in deep red states. Evan McMullin in Utah and Cara Mund in North Dakota performed similarly well.

“Unfortunately, recent polling and fundraising reports make it clear that a Democrat does not have a viable path to winning the Montana Senate seat.”Progressive Vet, who supported Bankhead in the primary
“At VoteVets, we support winners.”Gen. Paul Eaton, VoteVets Senior Advisor

This seat may decide the Senate.

There are a lot of tight Senate races. Senate control matters more right now than it has in a long time.

The Supreme Court

If Justice Alito or Thomas retires under pressure and is replaced by a younger conservative, a conservative majority is locked in for a very long time. The Senate decides who gets confirmed.

Federal agencies

After this June's Trump v. Slaughter ruling, the president may fire most independent agency heads at will. With removal protections gone, Senate confirmation is the main remaining check on who runs federal agencies and sits on the federal bench.

About Seth Bodnar

Seth Bodnar is a West Point graduate, Army veteran, and Rhodes Scholar who served as president of the University of Montana — a job he resigned from in order to run for this seat. He qualified for the November ballot by petition.

He is backed by former Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus.

Bodnar supports

  • Codifying Roe and ensuring access to reproductive healthcare for whoever needs it
  • Protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security “Social Security and Medicare are not entitlements — they are earned promises. I will not support cuts to these benefits, full stop.” — Bodnar
  • Ending gerrymandering and overturning Citizens United Bodnar is endorsed by the Montana AFL-CIO and by End Citizens United.
  • Defending public lands and keeping them in public hands Bodnar is endorsed by Montana Conservation Voters, Wild Montana Action Fund, and the League of Conservation Voters, who call public lands “not bargaining chips.”

FAQ

Why August 10?

Under Montana law, a candidate can't withdraw once there are fewer than 85 days until the election. That puts the deadline at August 10.

Can Bankhead actually fund a general-election campaign?

From May 14 to June 30, Bodnar raised over $1.1 million and Alme about $800,000. Bankhead reported just under $35,000 in her most recent filing. Winning a Montana Senate race on that budget is not realistic.

Doesn't Bankhead winning the primary prove she can win in November?

A primary and a general are completely different. A primary is a small, low-turnout race decided by those faithful to each party. Only about 112,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. In the last election, over 600,000 Montanans voted, and November will be a very different, and much tougher, electorate.

But also, her campaign wasn't actually cheap: a Super PAC called Progressive Vet spent roughly $3.3 million boosting her and attacking her better-funded rival, Reilly Neill. At the same time, a Republican PAC called More Jobs, Less Government spent another $1.8 million on casting Neill as a stereotypical liberal and Bankhead as a pragmatic, Trump-friendly moderate. That's Republican money shaping the Democratic primary toward who they preferred to face in November.

Would Democrats be forced to put forward another nominee if Bankhead dropped out?

Probably not. The Montana Democratic party would need to change its bylaws such that it would not be required to replace a nominee who drops out, but Montana Dem party leadership have expressed willingness to do so. A group of lawyers has analyzed the Montana Democratic Party's bylaws, the Montana constitution, and other similar situations and concluded that, no, they don't have to nominate one and would likely win a lawsuit if challenged. Here's their analysis (PDF).

Bankhead is a champion for women's rights and reproductive freedom. Will Bodnar be a champion for these issues if he wins?

Bodnar's position is that “The government has no business in our bedrooms, has no businesses in our doctor's office…” And according to his campaign, while he was president of the University of Montana, female deans went from one to seven, and 78% of campus employee promotions went to women.

Furthermore, Nancy Keenan (past president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Democratic Party chair) asked Bankhead to step down, endorsed Bodnar, and said, “A harsh truth remains — there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race.”

Only one thing will determine whether these rights are won or lost: whether Republicans control the Senate and, therefore, will confirm Trump's nominees as federal judges and Supreme Court justices. If Bankhead drops out, we have a much better chance of denying them that majority. If she stays in, Kurt Alme would be a rubber stamp for Trump's agenda. Bodnar would not.

What about that sexual-discrimination lawsuit at the University of Montana?

The lawsuit was filed in 2021 against the University of Montana and the Montana University System — not against Bodnar personally — by 18 women who worked at UM. The University, not Bodnar, settled it in 2024 for $350,000. There was no finding of wrongdoing against Bodnar. Some of the allegations concerned a campus culture that predated Bodnar's arrival in 2018.

I'm a Democrat. Why should I trust an independent?

Bodnar is backed by former Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus. His campaign is staffed by veterans of Tester's team, and he's committed to codifying Roe, protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, ending gerrymandering, and overturning Citizens United. On the issues that matter most to Montana Democrats, he's an ally.